TMC – 2025-12-26 - increase Confidence 6/10

TMC – increase in Days/Weeks

TMC reported negative free cash flow of $44M (TTM) and a Q3 net loss of $184.5M, yet holds $165M in total liquidity and secured $122.2M in strategic investments from Korea Zinc and partners. Recent updates confirm compliance with U.S. exploration licensing and highlight a combined $23.6B NPV from two economic studies.

Why This Matters

Despite no revenue and ongoing losses, TMC’s financial runway is extended through 2026 due to strong cash reserves and strategic funding—critical for a pre-commercial deep-sea miner. With the International Seabed Authority’s permitting delays now in focus and NOAA confirming compliance, any forward movement on regulatory approval could act as a near-term catalyst, especially as institutional holders like Susquehanna and Driehaus maintain positions.

Key Insights

• Cash & Liquidity: $165M total liquidity as of November 2025, up from $115.6M, providing operational runway.
• News Impact: $23.6B NPV from reserves and Korea Zinc’s $85.2M investment signal long-term confidence, supporting sentiment.
• Risk/Offset: Beta of 1.825 indicates high volatility; regulatory delays at ISA remain a key overhang.

Practical Implications

• Bull Case: Positive regulatory signal from ISA or NOAA by early January → 15–20% rally toward $8.00.
• Bear Case: No progress on permitting or lawsuit resurgence → retest of $5.80 support.
• Confidence: 6/10 – Catalyst-rich environment offsets weak fundamentals in the short term.

Prediction: increase

Reference:

• From internal analysis.